Hi Halo,
First of what is connect state of BGP?
In connect state, bgp waits for a TCP conn. to be completed. It starts ConnectRetry timer and then If it is successful to establish TCP connection then the local router will send an OPEN message to the bgp peer(external or internal) and the BGP state machine transitions to the OpenSent state. However, if the TCP connection attempt fails, the local bgp router resets the ConnectRetry timer and transitions to the Active state. Additionally, depending on the failure condition, the local router could also revert back to the Idle state. Additionally, if the ConnectRetry timer reaches 0 while the local router is in the Connect state, the timer is reset and another connection attempt is made. In this case, the local router remains in the Connect state.
In your case TCP connection establishment is the problem.
Possiblity 1.
Local router is sending TCP connection request to 61.19.61.1, but peer is not able to process it.
1. Could be configuration issue for peering address on Cisco router.
2. Check Policy on Cisco router if any access-list configured to deny packet from 61.19.61.1 on port 179(BGP application port).
3. Cisco router is busy in processing other request which is queing TCP request from local peer. Check CPU utilization or other hw problem could be there.
4. Check for any CoPP policy on cisco router.
Possiblity 2.
Local router is sending TCP connection request to 61.19.61.1, but peer is not able to recieve it on their side.
1. It could be issue on link congestion, check end-end path by continues ping, encountering any ping loss.
2. If possible check if any Firewall inbetween check the policy in it, port 179 is allowed for communication between local router and cisco router.
3. Check for any QoS policy.
Please feel free to reply back with any queries...